Will America be a democracy in 2050?  For a long time, many political progressives would have answered this question with a qualified and cautious “yes.” True, they worried about our pathological campaign finance system, the paralytic of partisan gerrymandering, and the toxin of voter suppression.

But they didn’t think of these as systemic, potentially catastrophic threats. Since 2016, progressives and many others have been concerned about a different sort of shadow on constitutional democracy. Americans suddenly became aware of a wave of “populist” leaders who seized on a political opportunity presented by economic crisis to discredit established parties on both the Left and Right.

Once in power, the populist adopted the rhetorical posture of speaking for “the People,” implying or openly asserting that opposition was not just disloyal but even treasonous. Necessarily, this populist’s challenge to political elites and claim to speak for the nation brought him—or, in the Argentinian case, her—into conflict with independent institutions such as courts, central banks, election administrators, and prosecutors. At times, this conflict leads to a collapse of free-standing checks on political power. Less constrained, populists begin mismanaging power and seeking ways to entrench themselves by direct attacks on opposition politicians, the media, and academia. In the extreme—as in Turkey—the end result is constitutional change that consolidates the populist’s power. Democratic forms remain, but largely as outer forms lacking substance or the prospect of real change.

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